California Governor Gavin Newsom can spout anti-trans rhetoric all he wants, but that won't endear him to conservative Republicans, some Democrats, and the many independent voters he would need to win the presidency, should he decide to seek the Democratic nomination in 2028. (And all signs point to him doing just that.) In fact, we'll go out on a limb and say that Newsom will never be president.
He can cozy up to transphobes like Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon, but the truth is that MAGA adherents – and many others – will never vote for someone like Newsom, who is viewed in conservative circles as simply too progressive and out of touch with their backward views. Those MAGA principles emphasize "traditional values" at the expense of LGBTQ rights, civil rights, and equality for all.
Yes, Newsom did an amazing thing back in 2004 when, as San Francisco mayor, he ordered city officials to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The late U.S. senator Dianne Feinstein said Newsom was rushing ahead on an issue ("too much, too fast, too soon" were her famous words) that was, at the time, deeply polarizing. In the end, of course, the U.S. Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage in all 50 states. That was 10 years ago.
Now, with President Donald Trump back in the White House, surrounded by sycophants and in total control of the Republican Party, the fight against same-sex marriage is almost quaint compared to the war being waged on transgender Americans, starting with Trump himself, who last month signed a horrendous executive order, "Keeping Men out of Women's Sports," that is being used to prohibit trans girls and women from playing on female sports teams. Newsom used to be a politician who could be counted on to confront transphobia and have the LGBTQ community's back. As governor, he has signed laws protecting trans youth and families.
Those days appear to be over.
A couple of weeks ago, Newsom debuted his new podcast, "This is Gavin Newsom," with none other than Turning Point USA founder and noted transphobe Kirk as his first guest. In promoting the podcast, Newsom had said he would be talking with people he doesn't necessarily agree with (read: Republicans), but it seemed to us that he agreed with Kirk a lot on the program, even mentioning that one of his sons is a huge fan of Kirk's.
Kirk challenged Newsom to come out against men in women's sports. "Would you say no men in female sports?" Kirk asked.
"Well, it's an issue of fairness. I completely agree with you on that," Newsom said. "I totally agree with you. By the way, as someone with four kids ... two daughters and a wife that went, God forbid, to Stanford, played on a junior national soccer team ... . So the issue of fairness is completely legit."
Except, as the East Bay Stonewall Democratic Club's board wrote in a letter to Newsom, that's the wrong framing to use.
"We rebuke this notion and your comment," the club's board wrote. "It is untrue and based on a deep level of misogyny and transphobia.
"Let's be clear: data, science, and facts show that trans athletes DO NOT have an unfair advantage," the letter noted. "This myth has been used by the alt right to fight against LGBTQ equality and you are buying in."
The club quoted Dr. Joshua D. Safer, who said, "A person's genetic make-up and internal and external reproductive anatomy are not useful indicators of athletic performance."
Thus, the East Bay Stonewall Democratic Club told Newsom in its letter, "You are promoting the myth that the participation of trans athletes hurts cis women. Excluding women who are trans hurts all women. As the ACLU writes, this 'invites gender policing that could subject any woman to invasive tests or accusations of being 'too masculine' or 'too good' at their sport to be a 'real' woman.'"
We saw those claims play out at last year's Paris Olympics, when female boxer Imane Khelif of Algeria won a gold medal and was immediately accused by haters on social media of being a transgender woman because of her strength and appearance. Thanks to the pressure exerted by Trump's executive order, we can expect to see things like gender testing being implemented for females in elite sports in this country, and it is already raising questions about how it will impact the 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles when the Olympics return to the U.S.
There's a March 7 piece in Politico, anonymously sourced, that reported Newsom's senior staff back in January, before the podcast with Kirk aired, discouraged state lawmakers from introducing trans rights legislation this year. Members of the Legislative LGBTQ Caucus ignored them, the outlet reported, and introduced bills dealing with the topic anyway, as we previously reported. But this development begs the question of whether Newsom will sign pro-trans legislation this year. He should.
Politico writer Charlie Mathesian wrote a different March 6 piece following the Kirk appearance on Newsom's podcast that was insightful. Mathesian talked with Politico California bureau chief Christopher Cadelago and framed the podcast episode as one of Newsom "declaring his independence" from the Democratic Party. There may be something to that, though we read Cadelago's comments and realized something else.
"Some of the impulse for speaking out on trans youth athletes in girls sports comes from the fact that he's a dad of four school-age kids – including two daughters – who hears directly from other parents of school-age kids in gyms, on the soccer field, and on baseball diamonds," Cadelago told Mathesian. "'Every one of my friends is freaked out about this,' Newsom told me today."
If Newsom's friends are so "freaked out," the governor should be using his considerable political skills to educate them. He could, with a single phone call or text, instantly reach a trans person from whom he could get accurate information. (We would argue that he already has plenty of material at his fingertips, having signed trans-friendly bills over the years, but more information is always beneficial.) His backing among the LGBTQ community is so deep – or was, prior to the disastrous Kirk interview – that he could enlist any number of state trans leaders to talk with these parents and other state residents about the real challenges trans people face, not only across the country, but here in California as well. We have no evidence that Newsom did any such thing, and that's the problem.
The Politico exchange with Cadelago misses the point about Newsom and his ambitions for the White House compared to when he was San Francisco mayor. Back then he was all about telling Americans – and Democrats – they were wrong not to back same-sex marriage at a time when polling was not on our side.
Yet now, while dreaming of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Newsom is following the polls rather than leading and trying to change hearts and minds.
That is the real betrayal and balloon-popping of Newsom's "profile in courage" reputation.
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