As we approach the 97th Academy Awards, rather than the usual celebration of cinema, this has been one of the mean-spirited pre-Oscar seasons in decades, resulting in a potentially volatile Oscar race in several major categories. The devastating Los Angeles wildfires cast a pall over the entire awards season, even postponing for six days the announcement of the nominations.
Most of the controversy has centered around "Emilia Perez," the transgender musical released by Netflix. First, there were old social media posts written by it star Karla Sofia Gascon (the first trans actress to be nominated) with disparaging remarks on George Floyd, Islam, and even the 2021 Oscar ceremony. Although her chances of winning Best Actress were slim prior to these comments, her prospects now are nil.
Secondly, the film has been accused of trivializing the drug-related violence in Mexico as well as being criticized for the lack of Mexican talent both in front and behind the camera.
Finally, GLAAD said the movie was a step backward for trans representation, especially by its treatment of transitioning as a death. The main critique has been the film's cisgender interpretation of trans people. Many, but not all, trans people dislike how the movie portrays transgender people.
There have also been attacks on "The Brutalist," the epic period drama about a Hungarian Jewish Holocaust survivor emigrating to the U.S. It was revealed that artificial intelligence tools were used to make stars Adrian Brody and Felicity Jones's accents sound more authentically Hungarian.
Finally, actress Fernanda Torres, star of the Brazilian film "I'm Still Here," had to issue an apology for wearing blackface in a comedy sketch 17 years ago.
However, the "Emilia Perez" charges are the most serious. The film garnered 13 nominations. Most prognosticators feel with all the hullabaloo, it has virtually no chance of winning Best Picture. However, it has also been nominated for Best International Feature Film, as is "I'm Still Here." Thus, there's a close race between these two films for that category.
The easiest category to predict is Best Supporting Actor. Kieran Culkin, as the damaged, free-spirited, unpredictable cousin visiting his Holocaust survivor grandmother's childhood Polish home in "A Real Pain," has won every precursor award (Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critic's Choice).
The other nominees, Yura Borisov (as the sympathetic, love-stricken kidnapping hoodlum in "Anora,"), Guy Pearce (as the snobbish industrialist who funds the Holocaust survivor architect in "The Brutalist"), Edward Norton (as folksinger Pete Seeger in "A Complete Unknown"), and Jeremy Strong (as the malevolent closeted lawyer Roy Cohn, who mentors a young Donald Trump), all worthy, but simply don't dominate their films in the way Culkin does.
Culkin's tour de force conveys the character's inner turmoil by balancing his obnoxiousness with poignant sadness. Only Strong comes close to stealing the movie from Sebastian Stan's Donald Trump, so he would likeliest be a surprise win, but Culkin's victory is a foregone conclusion.
Intense criticism of "Emilia Perez" hasn't stopped Zoe Saldana from winning the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and BAFTA awards as Best Supporting Actress. In truth she has more screen time than Emilia Perez and one could argue is the star of the film. She undergoes as much change emotionally as does Emilia.
The only other nominee who commands the screen as much is Arianna Grande's Glinda the Good witch in "Wicked." Since so many more people have seen "Wicked" than "Emilia Perez" if a popular plebiscite were taken, Grande would easily win.
But she hasn't won any major award, and along with Isabella Rossellini (as the fierce nun overseeing the cardinal's accommodation at the Vatican while they pick a new pope), Felicity Jones (as the journalist, Holocaust survivor wife of the main character), and Monica Barbaro (as folksinger Joan Baez who puts Bob Dylan's ego in its place) will have to be satisfied with their nominations, as the well-liked, much respected Saldana receives her Oscar.
The Best Actor race is between Adrian Brody's Laszlo Toth, a Hungarian Jewish Holocaust survivor who emigrates to America to pursue his dream of becoming an architect in "The Brutalist." Timothy Chalamet's Bob Dylan tracks his folk singing career in early 1960s Greenwich Village in "A Complete Unknown."
However, like Culkin, Brody has won every precursor award, except the SAG award which went to Chalamet. Brody's Laszlo is a very showy, emotional role and also a tribute to the American immigrant experience.
Ralph Fiennes as the dean of the college of cardinals in charge of electing a new Pope in "The Conclave," gay Colman Domingo's Divine G, the star playwright and actor at a small theater group in a prison correctional facility in "Sing Sing," and Stan's Trump trying to set himself up as a real estate tycoon in 1970s/1980s New York, are all marvelous performances worthy of Oscar recognition.
However, Brody is so electrifying as Laszlo that any other actor in that role is inconceivable, so it is very likely he will win his second Oscar (the first was for another Polish Jewish Holocaust survivor in "The Pianist" 22 years ago).
The Best Actress category is the real nail-biter of this Oscar season. Karla Sophia Gascon will definitely not win. Demi Moore's fading celebrity, Elisabeth Sparkle, who after being fired by her producer for being too old, uses an experimental black-market drug to create a younger version of herself with unexpected side effects, has won every precursor award except BAFTA. Along with a Golden Globe Award, Mikey Madison's stripper who weds the son of a rich Russian oligarch in "Anora" won the BAFTA.
Cynthia Erivo's Elphaba – born with green skin, she becomes Oz's Wicked Witch of the West in "Wicked" – while similar to Grande's Glinda, might win in a popular contest, has virtually no chance.
The dark horse could well be Fernanda Torres's Eunice Paiva, a wife/mother coping with the forced disappearance of her dissident politician husband during Brazil's military dictatorship in "I'm Still Here."
She was the shocking winner at the Golden Globes (in the drama category versus Moore's win in the comedy/musical division) which caused Academy voters to watch the film. It was so loved it became one of the ten nominees for Best Picture as well as Best International Feature Film. It's my personal favorite of the five nominees.
Unfortunately, only two women in 96 years have ever won for a foreign language role: Sophia Loren in "Two Women" and Marion Cotillard as French singer Edith Piaf in "La Vie En Rose," both classic chameleon earthshaking performances.
Torres has a lovely backstage narrative in that she is only the second Brazilian actress to be nominated for an Oscar, following her mother Fernanda Montenegro in "Central Station." If there was a split vote between Moore and Madison, Torres could squeak through with a win that would be headline news in Brazil.
But it's probably a race between Moore and Madison. Moore gave a fantastic Golden Globes acceptance speech about being a popcorn actress who doesn't win awards. She also has a great comeback role after not have any starring movie parts for 20 years.
Hollywood loves to celebrate rebounds after kicking you down, a main reason Brendan Fraser won Best Actor two years ago for "The Whale." However, "The Substance," with all its satirical elements ribbing societal pressures on women's bodies and aging, is basically a horror film, especially in its second half, where Moore becomes almost a supporting character.
Contrarily, Madison gets to play three versions of her character: the brassy, carefree, fun-addicted prostitute landing a rich husband, then as a scared fugitive trying to escape from the Mafia-like henchman hired by her husband's family to end the marriage, and finally the upset Anora realizing her mistakes.
Along with Torres, it's the outstanding female performance of the year. She also won most of the film critic's prizes last year. It's an incredibly close contest. Although I would be thrilled if Torres won, with the Academy's predilection to reward young actresses in this category, I think Mickey Madison will be the one bringing Oscar home, but Moore's stirring return from Hollywood No (Wo)Man's Land could propel her to triumph.
Because no director stood out this year, it's probable whoever directs the Best Picture winner will be standing on stage with the Oscar. We've dealt with the chances of the catastrophic "Emilia Perez." "Dune: Part Two," "A Complete Unknown," "Nickel Boys," "I'm Still Here," "The Substance," and "Wicked," haven't won any previous Best Film awards. The popularity and crowd appeal of "Wicked" or "A Complete Unknown" could potentially cause an upset, but despite their merits, none of these films are real contenders.
Thus, we are left with "Anora," "The Brutalist," and "Conclave," which is the dark horse because it won at BAFTA and SAG. If there was a split vote between "Anora" and "The Brutalist," "Conclave" would probably benefit most and squeeze through to victory.
"The Brutalist" a throwback to those very long epic films Hollywood made in the 1960s ("Dr. Zhivago," "Cleopatra," "The Sound of Music") is one of those movies that is admired more than it is loved. Although well-paced and engrossing, audiences have rebelled against its daunting 3.5 hour running time (despite an intermission).
"Anora," a drama, has light comic elements in it, with its style having been compared to legendary director Howard Hawks' or Ernst Lubitsch's movies. "The Brutalist" is somber weighty history lesson from start to finish, with an inspirational postscript. "Anora" is entertaining, an ill-fated romance that at times resembles a wild dream.
Although it could be very close, I'm semi-confident "Anora" and its visionary director Sean Baker (who although straight, created the enchanting transgender sex worker comedy "Tangerine," in 2015) will prevail, winning their well-deserved Oscars. But a surprise victory by "Conclave" as the compromise choice (in rank voting) is entirely possible.
Technical Predictions:
Cinematography: "The Brutalist"
Costume Design: "Wicked"
Editing: "Conclave"
Makeup & Hairstyle: "The Substance"
Original Score: "The Brutalist"
Best Song: 'El Mal,' "Emilia Perez"
Production Design: "Wicked"
Sound: "Dune: Part Two"
Special Visual Effects: "Dune: Part Two"
Original Screenplay: "Anora"
Adapted Screenplay: "Conclave"
Animated Film: "The Wild Robot"
International Feature Film: "I'm Still Here"
The 97th Academy Awards airs March 2, 4pm PST, on ABC and Hulu.
www.abc.com
www.oscars.org
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