Marriage equality activists in California would do well to study the legislative effort now under way up north in Washington, where the state is on the cusp of achieving equal civil marriage for same-sex couples. Advocates there took their time, using the last couple years to build crucial support and it paid off. This month the governor announced her support, and Washington United for Marriage has formed an impressive coalition of backers, including businesses and political leaders. According to press reports, four Republican lawmakers also signaled their support for the legislation, something that was unheard of here in California several years ago when state Senator Mark Leno's (D-San Francisco) civil marriage law was passed by the Legislature and subsequently vetoed (twice) by former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
And while there is the threat of a referendum by opponents like the National Organization for Marriage if the bill passes, it's clear that a shift is occurring among politicians – especially Democrats – who once ran away from marriage equality.
Meanwhile, the small Love Honor Cherish group is trying to put an initiative on the California ballot this year that would repeal Proposition 8, the state's same-sex marriage ban. But it's clear that organizers don't have the funds to be successful. Love Honor Cherish has until mid-May to collect signatures from about 1 million registered voters and set a self-imposed goal of raising $1 million by February. Judging from the comments its interim executive director made at a fundraiser last weekend in San Francisco, Love Honor Cherish is nowhere close to meeting either goal.
People are hesitant to join the effort for many reasons, particularly large donors who are essential to helping bankroll a statewide campaign. For one, Love Honor Cherish tried a similar repeal initiative in 2010 but was unsuccessful in collecting the needed signatures. Now it wants to try again, but there is barely more infrastructure in place than there was two years ago.
Many LGBTs and allies are leery of another statewide campaign. It would probably cost as much, if not more, than the Prop 8 fight (both sides raised and spent around $40 million, making it the most expensive initiative campaign ever in California and the most expensive in the 2008 election except for the presidential race). Raising that kind of money requires buy-in from donors large and small, and so far, that community support isn't evident. While about 100 people showed up at Love Honor Cherish's San Francisco event last weekend, thousands of people would need to turn out at events every week to garner the support and financial backing required for a statewide campaign.
But the biggest obstacle is one that neither Love Honor Cherish nor anyone else can control: the federal Prop 8 lawsuit that now sits before the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. A three-judge panel is expected to issue its decision soon on upholding a trial judge's ruling that Prop 8 is unconstitutional. But that court's decision likely won't be the end of the issue, as most legal observers believe the Prop 8 case is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. And as long as that case is active before the courts, most marriage equality advocates are unwilling to pony up resources for another nasty ballot fight.
Love Honor Cherish would be wise to consider the fact that until the federal court case is concluded, the issue is really in limbo. Instead of trying to raise money that isn't there, it should be utilizing its supporters to focus on public education and building bridges with lawmakers and other leaders in the event that Prop 8 is upheld. Because if that happens, we anticipate the community would be willing to wage a campaign to repeal Prop 8.