If Jerry Brown doesn't stop the bleeding, it's not going to be a pretty picture for LGBTs in November. Sure, Brown, the Democratic candidate for governor, has been down the campaign trail before – many times in fact. He served two terms as governor in the 1970s-1980s. He was elected mayor of Oakland for eight years. He's now California's attorney general. In other words, he's run – and won – campaigns. But this year is different. This year, he faces a formidable challenge from his Republican opponent, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. What Whitman lacks in political experience (heck, she didn't even vote much before becoming a candidate) she more than makes up for with cold, hard cash.
So far, Whitman has shown absolutely no inclination to stop spending her millions. That's what is different for Brown this time. Before, he could take the tortoise approach to campaigning, wait until Labor Day – the traditional start of the election season – and then work toward victory. Not this year. Whitman has continuously aired her television commercials since winning the GOP primary last month, and by saturating the airwaves, she is starting to define Brown. The problem is that he is doing little to define himself.
Indicating that Brown may be losing his edge is last week's Field Poll showing Whitman is gaining among Latinos, a group that hasn't embraced a Republican candidate for governor since former Governor Pete Wilson scapegoated immigrants with Proposition 187 in 1994. (That initiative, approved by voters, was found unconstitutional by a federal court.) Wilson is now serving as Whitman's campaign chairman. Whitman even made the savvy decision to buy television time on Spanish-language stations during the recent World Cup matches.
Throughout the primary season, Brown watched from the sidelines as Whitman demolished state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. With no major opponent of his own, Brown has spent very little money and didn't run much of a primary campaign because he didn't need to. But that's all changed now. Last week's Field Poll placing Whitman and Brown in a statistical dead heat (44 percent for Brown, 43 percent for Whitman) should wake him up; but Brown is campaigning like it's the 1970s.
We all know that Whitman is not an ally of the LGBT community. But more than that, Whitman wants to lay off state workers and gut the state's strong environmental laws, among other draconian measures. Immigrants should be aware that during the primary she tilted far to the right in response to Poizner's attack ads; now, however, she's trying to appear more moderate.
One thing to remember: Whitman is no moderate.
A rough year
Nationally, this is shaping up to be a rough year for incumbents in general and Democrats in particular. The reason is partly historical: the president's party typically loses seats in the midterm elections. But voter angst over the soft economy, high unemployment, government bailouts, the Gulf oil spill, and the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with an energized Republican base, are challenges that are overwhelming this administration. Regarding LGBT issues, a lot of us aren't happy with the administration's and Congress' glacial pace on repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and bringing up the Employment Non-Discrimination Act for a vote.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs acknowledged the obvious on last Sunday's Meet the Press when he said, "... there is no doubt there are enough seats at play that could cause Republicans to gain control" of the House. He may have been trying to lower expectations for November. But there's some evidence to what he said; a Washington Post/ABC News poll out this week shows just 43 percent approval for President Barack Obama.
What happens if Democrats lose the House? For one thing, Nancy Pelosi will no longer be speaker, and the LGBT community will have lost one of its most powerful advocates on Capitol Hill. Progress on LGBT bills such as the Employment Non-Discrimination Act will be halted. Activists are clamoring for a House vote on ENDA now, but Pelosi won't do that until she's sure she has the votes. At this rate, it's looking unlikely that ENDA will be voted on this year, meaning it's all the more important for Democrats to keep control of the House when the next Congress convenes in January.
Things aren't much better on the Senate side, where Democrats already lost their 60th vote earlier this year when Republican Scott Brown was elected from Massachusetts.
In California, Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer is facing a tough opponent, Carly Fiorina, the wealthy former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Polls on this race are also close, with Survey USA this week finding Fiorina leading Boxer 47 percent to 45 percent.
Boxer – and Brown – are going to need Golden State LGBTs to turn out for the November election. Boxer missed a prime opportunity to shore up this constituency when she declined to attend the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club's Pride breakfast last month.
One thing's for sure – it's going to be a bumpy ride from now until November.