With less than three weeks left before the November 5 elections, there are three big questions in the U.S. Senate races for LGBTQ people: whether lesbian Senate incumbent Tammy Baldwin will secure a third term despite tight polling; how a gay Republican candidate will do in New Jersey; and can Democrats maintain their majority in the body.
The political landscape has also turned brutal for Democrats hoping to keep control of the Senate by an influx of anti-trans ads from Republicans and Republican-backed super PACs.
Baldwin's Wisconsin race is one of several closely contested battles over Senate seats. Democrats are predicted to lose enough seats this year they will also lose majority control of the chamber. But one seat they will almost certainly hold onto is the open seat from New Jersey, even though the Republican candidate, Curtis Bashaw, is a "pro-choice married gay man." Democratic Congressmember Andy Kim is expected to win the Senate seat in blue New Jersey.
The Senate currently includes three LGBTQ members: Baldwin, Kyrsten Sinema (Independent-Arizona), and Laphonza Butler (D-California). But the latter two — Sinema and Butler — are not running for reelection. If Baldwin loses in Wisconsin, the Senate representation of LGBTQ people will drop to zero.
Baldwin has had some tough challenges in past elections, but she has pulled out a win each time. In 2012, and in 2018, she won by 10 points.
Five different polls last week showed Baldwin up by almost five points against Republican businessman Eric Hovde; but, the most recent poll, conducted October 8-9, showed her only one point ahead. That latest poll was conducted by InsiderAdvantage, a small firm that has provided polling for conservative Fox News. More reliable polls, reported October 9 and 10, showed Baldwin with a four-point lead, just beyond the margin of error.
But even if Baldwin pulls out a victory again, the prospects for Democrats keeping a majority in the Senate are still a long shot.
The chamber is currently split 51 to 49, with the Democratic majority having 47 Democrats plus four independents who caucus with Democrats. One of those independents, Joe Manchin, handed Republicans his seat last November when he announced he would retire. His home state of West Virginia is considered one of the most highly Republican states in the country, and the GOP candidate is running more than 30 points ahead in the only known poll. Another former Democrat, Sinema, who is bisexual, also switched to independent and announced her retirement; but, in her state of Arizona, it appears a Democrat, Congressmember Ruben Gallego, will keep the seat.
That puts the Senate at 50-50. Current polling shows Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Tester of Montana eight points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio is polling only about one point ahead of his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. If Tester falls and Brown stays in, Democrats still need to defeat at least one Republican incumbent to hang onto their majority. The most likely state where that could happen is a surprise: Nebraska. Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer has only a one-point lead in her race against independent challenger Dan Osborn.
The attacks on Baldwin
In Wisconsin, Baldwin's Republican challenger, Hovde, is a real estate man with former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's backing and much of his agenda. He and other Republican challengers in Senate races are leaning heavily on anti-LGBTQ messages to persuade voters to dump incumbent Democrats.
In a live interview on Fox News October 12, Hovde insinuated that Baldwin was pressuring local school boards to "change Title IX to allow guys to play in girls' sports and guys to go into girls' locker rooms and bathrooms."
"She's so radical on every single thing," said Hovde.
A super PAC called Fix Washington, funded largely by Hovde's brother, Stephen, has been buying television ads in the past week, portraying Baldwin as an extreme radical trying to "force girls to share locker rooms with biological men."
Jonathan Capehart, a gay man who hosts "The Last Word" on MSNBC, asked Baldwin how she feels about her opponent's efforts to "go big" on the subject of transgender female athletes playing in sports leagues for females.
Baldwin brushed off the question, saying, "there's hardly a Wisconsin group [Hovde] hasn't insulted."
According to Federal Election Commission records, Fix Washington has spent more than $4 million in independent expenditures to oppose Baldwin's reelection.
Various national media reports pointed out this month that Baldwin supports a bill to prevent legislators and their spouses from buying individual stock. Each also pointed out that the bill would not apply to Baldwin because she is not married to her live-in girlfriend, wealth management adviser Maria Brisbane. Hovde said the Baldwin-Brisbane relationship creates the appearance of a conflict of interest and that Brisbane should disclose the details about her clients. Baldwin shot back with an ad, calling the Hovde insinuation a "complete lie" and saying she has "never shared inside information with her partner."
The New York Times reported September 25 that the Trump campaign was spending $2.3 million to air an anti-transgender ad against his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, in four battleground states — Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
RealClearPolitics.com shows Baldwin up by an average of 4.5 points in the seven most recent polls of the race, polls that showed her up by as much as 11 points in July.
Republican-supportive groups have been running anti-LGBTQ ads against Tester in Montana and Brown in Ohio. One group, called Citizens for Sanity, is putting up billboards that say such things as, "Help Charlie become Charlotte. Puberty blockers are a civil right," (https://forsanity.org/) "Protect Pregnant Men from Climate Discrimination," and "Vote to keep our borders, jails, and bathrooms open. Vote progressive."
Polling by Stanford University and others in Texas, Arizona, and California found that most voters polled in Arizona and Texas were against allowing transgender people in bathrooms and women's sports.
Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has started running ads claiming his Democratic opponent, Congressmember Colin Allred, "voted to allow boys in girls' locker rooms." The fine print on the ad indicates Allred voted for the Equality Act in 2021.
The Equality Act seeks to amend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to add "sexual orientation" and "gender identity" to the categories of discrimination prohibited by federal law. Despite President Joe Biden's repeated calls for it to be sent to him so he could sign it into law, it remains stalled in Congress due to Republican opposition to the bill.
If Republicans gain control of the Senate, then it is unlikely there will be movement on the Equality Act in the next session. On another matter, if the GOP takes over the Senate majority, then they can stall or obstruct the ability of a Democratic president to appoint judges to federal seats, including the U.S. Supreme Court.
At the moment, most political pundits think Democrats will not keep the Senate, even though state polls suggest a Democrat could win the seats vacated by retiring incumbent Sinema in Arizona and Senator Deborah Stabenow in Michigan.
Bottom line: Democratic incumbents, including Baldwin, must win reelection, and Democrats must pick up one seat somewhere for the party to keep control.
Sinema decided in March not to run for reelection, saying, "Because I choose civility, understanding, listening, working together to get stuff done, I will leave the Senate at the end of this year." California Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Butler, a Black lesbian, to fill out the term of long-time Senator Dianne Feinstein, who died in September 2023.
At the time Butler was appointed, a number of prominent Democrats had already announced plans to run for Feinstein's seat (from which she had planned to retire). Butler announced she would not seek reelection to a new term this year. Congressmember Adam Schiff (D), a straight ally, is expected to win the Golden State's Senate seat over his Republican challenger, former baseball star Steve Garvey.
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