For many people, the specter of November 8, 2016 looms large over Election Day on November 5. That day eight years ago was poised to see the Democrat Hillary Clinton become the first woman president. Famously, it didn't happen. At 11:40 p.m. Pacific Time that night, major media began calling the race for Republican Donald Trump.
Four years later, it took until the Saturday after Election Day before two major news coalitions could report Democrat Joe Biden was the victor over Trump.
This year, it is hard to predict when a winner in the presidential race between Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris might become apparent. As the New Republic magazine reported October 23, "A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump's favor." Looking at only well-known independent polling operations, several things seem clear at this point, just days before the election.
In the seven battleground states polls are too close to predict the outcome: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. They have a combined total of 93 electoral votes. In 2020, Biden won six of the seven (all but North Carolina). Current polling in these states suggest Harris will take 50 electoral votes to Trump's 43.
Two states, Nebraska and Maine, split their electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district. Polling at the moment suggests that, of the nine electoral votes they have combined, five will go to Trump and four to Harris.
In the other 41 states, where results seem largely predictable (due to each state's past voting records, current large polling margins, and known demographics), Harris has 222 electoral votes and Trump 214. Add in the likely splits from Nebraska and Maine, the numbers show Harris with a core 226, and Trump with a core 219.
If swing state electoral votes are distributed based on who has the tiniest of margins, Harris appears poised to win 276 to Trump's 262. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
In Harris' clearest path to 270 electoral votes, if by 7 p.m. Pacific Time, Trump has accumulated 258 electoral votes to Harris' 196, poll closures in California, Washington, and Oregon at 8 p.m. will yield Harris the 74 electoral votes of the three West Coast states. Idaho, which closes at the same time, is expected to give its four electoral votes to Trump.
But no one should count on getting to bed at a decent hour November 5; there are just too many ifs, ands, and buts — numerous other scenarios could play out, including the possibility that some states will not know their results until many hours or days after the polls close.
Other races
Plus, there are other races of interest to LGBTQ voters Tuesday night. Perhaps the most significant is lesbian U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin's (D-Wisconsin) very tight race to win reelection to a third term. Republicans have pummeled her state with television ads claiming that Baldwin is an extreme radical trying to "force girls to share locker rooms with biological men." Her Republican opponent, Eric Hovde, has been claiming Baldwin wants to "change Title IX to allow guys to play in girls' sports and guys to go into girls' locker rooms and bathrooms." They have even derided her for "being in bed with Wall Street," a thinly-veiled reference to other attack ads noting that Baldwin's wealthy girlfriend, Maria Brisbane, is an investment adviser in Manhattan.
Curtis Bashaw, a gay Republican, is running a long-shot campaign for the open U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey but is not expected to win. Democratic Congressmember Andy Kim is expected to keep New Jersey blue.
Fifteen out LGBTQ people are running for U.S. House seats this year: 10 incumbents and five challengers. Polls suggest four of those five newcomers could win, and Democrats need a net gain of four new seats in order to take the majority in the House.
Things are a little trickier in the Senate. There are currently 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents who caucus with the Democrats, giving the party a 51-50 edge. To maintain control, Democrats would need to hang onto Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, keep New Jersey and Michigan, and pick up another seat. West Virginia will almost certainly go to the Republicans — retiring Senator Joe Manchin changed his party affiliation from Democrat to independent. And in Montana, Senator Jon Tester (D) is trailing his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy.
Here's a brief synopsis of what to watch for and when on election night (all times Pacific):
4 to 5 p.m.
Presidential race: Trump will likely end the hour with 82 electoral votes, Harris 16. If Harris takes either Georgia or North Carolina, a big upset is in the works. Keep an eye on Virginia's 13 electoral votes. Polls indicate they are "likely" to go to Harris, but an upset there would seriously hamper Harris' prospects for the rest of the evening.
U.S. House: Incumbent Becca Balint of Vermont (at-large), a lesbian, is poised to win easily.
5 to 6 p.m.
Presidential race: Michigan and Pennsylvania are the swing states to watch this hour. Harris needs both; if Trump wins either, he has a much stronger chance of getting to 270.
U.S. Senate: Gay hotelier Bashaw is running for the seat left open by Democratic former senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey. (Menendez resigned after he was convicted in July for accepting bribes in return for helping Egypt and Qatar.) In addition to running red in a very blue state, Bashaw has not run for or held elective office before and Kim, his Democratic opponent, has served two terms in the House.
6 to 7 p.m.
Presidential race: Wisconsin is a must-win for Harris. Arizona has been close but leaning toward Trump. If Harris has won Pennsylvania and Michigan in the previous hour, Wisconsin would position her to reach the magic mark of 270 electoral votes to win when the West Coast states are reported.
U.S. Senate: Baldwin is in a very close race to win a third term. Her opponent, Hovde, has a brother whose political action committee has spent several million dollars in attack ads against Baldwin. One attack ad mentions that New York residents have donated $1.3 million to the Baldwin campaign; it did not mention that her opponent, Hovde, has a home and business in Orange County, California. And Hovde's brother, Steven, contributed at least $2 million to oppose Baldwin.
U.S. House: State Representative Julie Johnson is leading the polls to win the Texas 32nd Congressional District seat. The Dallas Morning News endorsed her, and she could become the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from the southern states. Gay former congressmember Mondaire Jones is running for New York's 17th Congressional District seat. The polls show him even with Republican incumbent Michael Lawler.
7 to 8 p.m.
Presidential race: The swing state of Nevada, with six electoral votes, has been leaning toward Harris, though some polls have called it a toss-up at this late point. National Public Radio reported this month that the Trump campaign has spent $17 million on campaign ads portraying Harris as in favor of transgender surgery for prison inmates and migrants. The ads are appearing in all seven swing states, including Nevada.
8 to 9 p.m.
Presidential race: If there is — as there was in 2020 — a "red wave" of votes for Trump for most of the evening, but he has reached only 263 electoral votes, the "blue tsunami" will hit at 8 p.m. with the report of votes from California, Oregon, and Washington. All three will go for Harris, giving her their 74 electoral votes, for a total of 270 if she had 196 electoral votes going into the hour.
U.S. House: California and Washington state each have at least one LGBTQ candidate for the U.S. House that is well positioned to win. In California, that is Democrat Will Rollins, a gay man, making his second bid for the 41st Congressional District seat that includes the LGBTQ-friendly city of Palm Springs. He is up against Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, and the latest polls showed them tied. In Washington, state Senator Emily Randall (D), who is queer, was the top vote-getter in the open primary, including 23,000 more votes than the other top Democrat and 10,000 more than the second top vote-getter, a Republican. The seat is seen as a solidly Democratic one.
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