The shock is still all too real. Americans elected a convicted felon as their next president. Of course, the new president-elect, Donald Trump, is the same former president who unleashed chaos the last time he was in office. Get ready for more of the same, as this time there will be little to stop him. He's already packed the U.S. Supreme Court with a 6-3 Trump-friendly supermajority. On Tuesday, he received another gift when the U.S. Senate flipped to Republican control. Critically, that will result in a flood of Trump-nominated conservative federal judges being confirmed. LGBTQ legal advocates once relied on federal courts — and still do in many instances — to right wrongs and maintain or expand our rights; that will be sharply curtailed once the new administration takes over in January.
Despite the election of Sarah McBride (D-Delaware), the country's first transgender member of Congress; the reelection of lesbian U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin); and the victories of several other out members of the House of Representatives, the next four years portend poorly for LGBTQ people, especially those who are transgender, nonbinary, or immigrants. (Control of the House of Representatives is still unknown as there are many close contests to be determined.) We expect the next Trump administration to forcefully fight against gender-affirming care for trans youth, trans women playing sports on women's teams, and the like. Trump may even reinstate the ban on trans military service members that he announced in 2017 and which President Joe Biden rescinded in 2021.
It is a given that Trump will eviscerate the Department of Justice. Not only will the criminal inquiries into him cease, we see a DOJ weaponized against Trump's enemies — real or perceived — and ineffective in protecting the LGBTQ and other minority communities.
Unlike in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Trump is on pace to actually win the popular vote this year, which seemed unthinkable prior to Tuesday. Once he won Pennsylvania the writing was on the wall; Wisconsin put him over the top. In fact, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, looks unlikely to win any of the seven swing states. The polls foretold tight races in those states, but so far, they have all broken for Trump. (Results were not yet called for Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada at press time, but Trump was leading in all three.)
As for the noxious Project 2025 — buckle up. Trump talked on the campaign trail about handing over health duties to anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and establishing an "efficiency" department (whatever that is) under anti-LGBTQ billionaire Elon Musk. The new administration is likely to unveil many policies from the Project 2025 playbook.
As we wrote back in July: "To actually read Project 2025 is to be transported in time back to the 1950s, when men worked outside the home, women tended to the home, and the heterosexual family unit was the gold standard. Never mind those pesky gays. Today, stable and flourishing families should be promoted, Project 2025 states, but that doesn't refer to same-sex families. 'Unfortunately, family policies and programs under President Biden's [Health and Human Services] are fraught with agenda items focusing on LGBTQ+ equity, subsidizing single-motherhood, disincentivizing work, and penalizing marriage,' [it states]."
Project 2025 is in denial over societal changes that have occurred over the last several decades. The authors are scared of the progress the country has made in civil rights, women's rights, and LGBTQ rights, we noted at the time. Now that Trump has won, those threats are real.
And we noted that under the chapter about the Health and Human Services Agency, there's this: "Radical actors inside and outside government are promoting harmful identity politics that replaces biological sex with subjective notions of 'gender identity' and bases a person's worth on his or her race, sex, or other identities. This destructive dogma, under the guise of 'equity,' threatens American's [sic] fundamental liberties as well as the health and well-being of children and adults alike."
What went so horribly wrong for the Democrats will be the topic of much analysis — indeed, some of that has already started. Latino voters broke for Trump in astounding numbers, even as he campaigned promising to deport undocumented people, many of whom are Latino. We're sure to hear about other failings that contributed to Harris' defeat. One thing against her from the start was that she was tied to Biden, who's unpopular among many voters despite a productive administration that did so much for so many. But voters only saw inflation and higher prices and bolted to Trump. We'll see how they feel when he implements his tariff plans on imported goods, other countries retaliate by imposing their own tariffs, and companies raise prices for consumers.
In the end, it will likely be deep blue states like California that provide a safe haven for LGBTQ people. The Golden State has some of the strongest protections in the country, and on Tuesday, voters added another — enshrining the right to marry as fundamental by jettisoning the old Proposition 8 language from the state constitution that proclaimed marriage is only between a man and a woman.
Trump as the next president is frightening on many levels. But as a community, we must stand strong and repudiate any actions he takes that seek to desecrate our rights.
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