It's time once again to play that favorite LGBTQ parlor game: name this year's batch of Best Picture Academy Award nominations. The annual Oscar Derby office or affinity-group pool has become a joyous substitute for the pleasures of picking the Super Bowl winner.
We all remember that moment when, at the conclusion of last year's Oscar telecast, a confused Warren Beatty announced that "La La Land" had won Best Picture, only for the chagrined "winners" to almost immediately pass the trophy over to its rightful recipients, the producers of "Moonlight." The Oscar folks have probably taken great steps to see that nothing this embarrassing happens again. But the key to Oscar-night predictions is the list of Best Picture nominations. Here are my choices, an even dozen Best Picture candidates. The Academy will not agree in toto, but it's unlikely any other candidate will break into this magic circle.
Call Me by Your Name My 2017 Top Film pick is hands-down the best LGBTQ-content nominee to emerge this year. I think it will do what "Brokeback Mountain" fell just short of doing, nab the big prize. Ernest Borgnine is dead. I doubt the film's romantic Italian director Luca Guadagnino will receive the top director prize, but he's at least a safe bet for a nomination. More likely the film's co-stars: as the 17-year-old, skinny, curly-haired piano-playing imp Elio, Timoth�e Chalamet; and as the older boyfriend Oliver, Armie Hammer. Will they go head-to-head for Best Actor, or will one (Hammer, likely) be slotted in the Best Supporting category? A slightly longer shot is a Best Supporting Actor nod for the stunning monologue by Elio's dad (Michael Stuhlbarg), who steals the film's third act with a heartfelt talk to Elio, missing Oliver.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri In this darkly comic drama from the irreverent playwright/filmmaker Martin McDonagh, Mildred, a grieving mother (an incendiary performance from Frances McDormand) leases three message boards outside her small town aimed at provoking police chief Willoughby (Woody Harrelson, a reasonable man trapped in unreasonable times) into finding the person who raped and killed her daughter. Things come to a boil when the chief's deputy (Sam Rockwell), an emotionally retarded bully, egged on by his vengeful invalid mother, is drawn into the case. "Three Billboards" features a ferocious battle of wills between two Oscar-worthy characters. McDormand and Harrelson have never been better.
The Post In Steven Spielberg's film, a newly widowed newspaper owner and an emancipated editor take on the Nixon White House, in what would prove a dress rehearsal for Watergate. Will certainly land Best Picture, Director, Actress (Meryl Streep) and Actor (Tom Hanks) noms. The film raises profound, pertinent issues of whether the government can impose prior restraint on the press for revealing secrets that government officials may find embarrassing, but which do not necessarily pose a risk to the nation's security. In the present Trump climate, "The Post" could make a big statement, including Michael Moore-style acceptance speeches.
The Big Sick Hetero love and a sudden medical crisis are powerfully addressed.
The Shape of Water Mexican fantasy/horror master Guillermo del Toro strikes again, with a shocker that's both hard to watch and impossible to ignore. In the brilliant tradition of del Toro's career masterwork "Pan's Labyrinth."
Mudbound Black and white soldier buddies return to a racially inflamed Mississippi. Possible Screenplay or Best Supporting Actor nods.
Darkest Hour Gary Oldman disappears into a galvanizing Winston Churchill. Best Actor potential.
Phantom Thread A career swan-song for the great Anglo/Irish actor Daniel Day-Lewis.
Molly's Game A remarkable tale of a female gambler.
Lady Bird Greta Gerwig's directorial debut about the identity struggles of a Sacramento-raised teen is well-crafted, especially with respect to her battles with a strong-willed mom and an odd assortment of boyfriends, including a closeted gay guy.
Beach Rats This controversial Brooklyn-based drama finds a handsome stud strutting for the gals in the daytime, but having a strong attachment to older men online. Many hated the strong dollop of queer bashing in the film's third act. Honest but off-putting portrayal.
Detroit Controversial doc-drama on the 50th anniversary of the Motor City police/race riots is courageous, with some unsettling performances, especially from a British actor giving an incendiary turn as a racist white bully cop.
Timoth�e Chalamet (Elio) and Armie Hammer (Oliver) in director Luca Guadagnino's "Call Me by Your Name."