In less than 24 hours Election Day will arrive, and with it comes a number of races across California that LGBTQ political watchers will be following closely. Several U.S. House contests could double out membership among the Golden State's congressional delegation, while a number of county and state candidates could break through pink political glass ceilings if they are victorious.
One of the best bets for Democrats to pick up a House seat is with the candidacy of gay lawyer Will Rollins, who is taking on for a second time conservative Congressmember Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in the 41st Congressional District. It includes the LGBTQ resort and retirement mecca of Palm Springs, and polls have shown the race to be neck-and-neck.
Since coming close to defeating Calvert two years ago, Rollins has racked up significant support for his 2024 bid from the Democratic Party and record-breaking fundraising totals. His sending Calvert for the exit doors on Capitol Hill will be extra special for gay Congressmember Mark Takano (D-Riverside), who was outed by Calvert when he ran against him in 1994.
Takano would go on to win a different House seat in 2012 due to redistricting and is all but assured of being reelected Tuesday. Freshman gay Congressmember Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach) is also expected to easily win a second term.
Less certain is if gay Assemblymember Evan Low (D-Cupertino) will survive his bruising battle for the South Bay's open 16th Congressional District seat. Congressmember Anna Eshoo (D-Palo Alto) is retiring, and Low has been engaged in an increasingly negative contest to succeed her against fellow Democrat Sam Liccardo, the former mayor of San Jose.
Low accused him of orchestrating a recount of their primary race in an attempt to oust him from the November 5 ballot. At first it appeared Low and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) would both run against Liccardo on the fall ballot due to their being tied for second in the primary.
But after a former Liccardo staffer called for a recount, Low emerged the sole second-place winner by five votes. It kicked off months of sniping between his and Liccardo's campaign over everything from campaign finance violations to who had the most support among their Democratic elected colleagues.
In a Hail Mary attempt to bolster his chances, Low last week rolled out a last-minute endorsement from Governor Gavin Newsom. LGBTQ advocacy groups have also poured money into the race to help Low pull off a win.
Meanwhile, queer former Oakland resident Emily Randall appears poised to add Washington to the list of West Coast states with out congressional representation. After surviving her own bruising primary in August, defeating a fellow Democrat to face off against a Republican in a blue district, the Washington state senator is likely to win the Evergreen State's open 6th District U.S. House seat to become the first LGBTQ Latina sent to Congress.
State legislative races
While gay former West Sacramento mayor Christopher Cabaldon appears headed to becoming the first Filipino American in the state Senate and the first out person to represent the Bay Area's more northern counties, several other history-making LGBTQ legislative candidates are locked in close races.
Cabaldon is poised to win the sprawling Senate District 3 seat that includes portions of Contra Costa, Solano, Sonoma, and Napa counties as well as Yolo and Sacramento counties. The incumbent, Senator Bill Dodd (D-Napa), is termed out and backing Cabaldon to succeed him in his contest against Republican Dixon City Councilmember Thom Bogue.
Less certain is if joining Cabaldon as the first LGBTQ legislators representing parts of Contra Costa County will be Senate candidates Jovanka Beckles, who identifies as queer and lesbian, and Marisol Rubio, who identifies as gender-nonconforming, demisexual, and biromantic. The pair of progressive female leaders is seen as underdogs in their respective races.
Beckles, a former Richmond City Council member now on the AC Transit board, is locked in a tough contest against Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguín for the open Senate District 7 seat that spans Alameda and Contra Costa counties. Rubio, a San Ramon city councilmember, is running against Assemblymember Tim Grayson (D-Concord) for the open Senate District 9 seat that covers much of Contra Costa County and a portion of southern Alameda County.
A win by Beckles would make her one of the first out Black Latinas in the state Legislature. Rubio would be the first out Latina legislator from the Bay Area.
In Southern California, Palm Springs City Councilmember Lisa Middleton is aiming to become the first transgender member of the Legislature. She is locked in a tough race for the 19th Senate District spanning Riverside and San Bernardino counties against Senator Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R-Yucaipa).
Middleton's colleague Palm Springs City Councilmember Christy Holstege is one of several candidates who could become the first bisexual Democratic woman in the Legislature. She is in a rematch against Assemblymember Greg Wallis (R-Bermuda Dunes) after coming close to winning his Assembly District 47 seat in 2022.
Sasha Renée Pérez is seeking the open 25th Senate District spanning Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties against Republican Elizabeth Wong Ahlers, a member of the Crescenta Valley Town Council.
In Los Angeles County, Sade Elhawary is in a close contest against fellow Democrat Efren Martinez for the open Assembly District 57 seat in Los Angeles County. Elhawary, who prefers the term fluid over bisexual when it comes to her sexual orientation, would also be one of the first out Black Latinas serving in the Statehouse.
There is also a Republican versus Republican legislative race out politicos will be watching Tuesday. Firebrand gay conservative Carl DeMaio, a former San Diego city councilmember, is running against GOP party endorsed Andrew Hayes, president of the Lakeside Union School District Board of Trustees, for the open Assembly District 75 seat.
Should DeMaio pull off a win, he would become the first out Republican elected to the Legislature. And it would automatically raise questions if he would be allowed membership in the Legislative LGBTQ Caucus, having opposed various LGBTQ-related bills it has backed over the years.
What is certain ahead of Tuesday's vote is seeing the 12-person affinity group for LGBTQ legislators increase in size during the 2025 legislative session even though three current members will be departing. It is expected the seven standing for election Tuesday are likely to win their races, with five or more newcomers possibly joining them.
California county contests
Across California, attention is also on several county supervisor races with out candidates. Gay Emeryville City Councilmember John Bauters is aiming to become the first LGBTQ member on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors. Outgoing Supervisor Keith Carson opted not to seek reelection.
He placed second in the primary race for the open District 5 seat behind Oakland City Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas. In the spring, Bauters faced questions about his paltry fundraising schedule and if the race was Bas' to lose.
But as the Political Notes column reported in June, Bauters used the annual Pride Month observance to ramp up his campaign coffers with a host of events. Then came an FBI corruption probe into Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, an ally of Bas, that supercharged the effort to recall the city's first Hmong mayor and put a cloud over the candidacies of Bas and others politically aligned with Thao.
Having sat out the primary race, Carson in late August threw his support behind Bauters, who has raised a significant campaign war chest to spend on the race. In recent months it has been Bas facing questions if her campaign has lost momentum headed into Election Day.
In Santa Cruz County, mental health services nonprofit and queer mom Monica Martinez came close to winning outright the open District 5 supervisorial seat on her county board in March. Endorsed by outgoing Supervisor Bruce McPherson, she ended up falling short of the 50%-plus-one threshold needed to avoid a runoff race in November.
Coming in a distant second was Christopher Bradford, who lost his home in the 2020 CZU fire that devastated the region. While Martinez is expected to win the seat, and become her county's first out supervisor, she has faced questions in recent months about the finances of her agency, Encompass Community Services, and a lawsuit it was involved in half a decade ago with its nonprofit real estate partner agency that was settled out of court, as the news site Local Santa Cruz reported.
Facing one of the toughest election fights has been San Diego County Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer, a Democrat who is nonbinary and pansexual. She is fending off a challenge for her District 3 seat from Republican former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer.
He has hit Lawson-Remer over her handling of homelessness issues and positions on local taxes, while she has criticized Faulconer for opposing a minimum wage increase for fast food workers and supporting the construction of mega-mansions in critical wildlife habitat.
Millions have been spent on their race, as Republicans need to defeat Lawson-Remer to regain a three-person majority on the five-person governing body. With polls showing the race extremely close, it could be days before a clear winner emerges.
Whereas gay Democratic San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria could declare victory Tuesday night in his bid for a second term. Coming out of the summer, polling suggested he was in a tighter than expected race with his opponent, independent Larry Turner, a police officer and Marine Corps veteran.
But new polling this month found Gloria running away with the race to remain the only out mayor among the Golden State's top 10 municipalities. The Filipino politician, who served on the City Council before being elected to the state Assembly, became the first gay elected mayor of one of California's largest five cities four years ago.
The polls close Tuesday at 8 p.m., with the first results posted shortly thereafter. But it could be several hours before clear winners emerge in the various races, and one or more days for the closer contests to be called.
Keep abreast of the latest LGBTQ political news by following the Political Notebook on Threads @ https://www.threads.net/@matthewbajko.
Got a tip on LGBTQ politics? Call Matthew S. Bajko at (415) 829-8836 or email [email protected]
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